Winter training, winter racing?

So....quick update! it seems everyone is not updating like they used to. Whats wrong? I'll tell you what's wrong......one word.....TIME!

Winter is here, the roads are flooded or covered in leaves(they are in Manchester. Bloody shame traffic still managed to move unlike the the trains), its cold and windy(or is that just up north?) and of course having moved the blinking clocks back to keep the Scottish farmers happy....its bloody dark on the way to work and darker on the way home.

So its nearly Christmas so lets get lit up like a Norwegian Spruce and take to the tarmac and get the miles, kilometres for our continental friends, in. Who cares if its dark? I don't. I like it more than Nosferatu because I have a decent set of lights and twisty country lanes that are almost traffic free. Its just the getting there that gets on my wick. beggars can't be choosers my Mum used to say and some ways its better to ride in the street light section to conserve a bit of battery power for the darkness.
Its all in the aid of an early season Ironman. Our winter but Australia's summer/autumn. Ah well, it worked when I raced in South Africa. Three months of winter training and straight into a 40 degree Celsius race day(with acclimatisation) and I came second. Hope it can work twice.
The biking is going well and I'm getting about 8-10hrs a week in at an average of 18mph. The running is going very well, that is to say I am enjoying the running,and I'm getting about 4-6 hours a week. swimming has been reduced for now to get on top of the other two sports and kayaking in ZERO!
I'm loving the fact that having checked out the route in Melbourne that the gradient is simply minimal compared to what I am riding and running. I gain more height on my 8.5 miles run from work than in the whole of the IM marathon and my Tuesday night 30 miles cycle home is 2/3's of the height gained. Hmmmmm is IM Melbourne too flat? I am planning to get the TT bike set up on the turbo for some fast times without compromising the run.

So here's the juicy bit.... estimated times(predictions) for Melbourne

Swim........57min(based on previous performances but hoping for a faster, maybe 55-56)
T1.............<3min p="p">Bike(hmmm pause deep breath)....4hrs 50min
T2.............<3min p="p">Run 3hrs 10min

total 9hrs 3min

what do you reckon? achievable?
honest opinions please!

 

hills hills and more hills

It seems when you move up north you have to expect the terrain to change. And by jebers is does. I don't often train with others as I like to do my sessions when I want and at my pace without having to get into a ego fight every time the tarmac elevates or a cyclist is spotted in the distance. As it happens doing the hills comes into virtually every ride I do and some are bigger than others.
One of my favourite rides is starting from home or Ali's home and heading out to Whalley Bridge and over Long Hill to Buxton. Ive just found out today that this is a category 3 hill and I always try to ascend at 12mph plus. After Buxton the road can either turn right and head over the infamous Cat and Fiddle (yesterdays ride) or continue stratight on for Leek which is what I did today. The road then takes in another category 4 climb and although I was going up at 8mph it is considerably shorter to the highest point. The bonus is the decent into Leek with the odd undulation thrown in but I managed to hit 54.8mph freewheeling.
Taking the Macclesfield road out of Leek I was hoping to meet with Ali on her ride as she was taking the shorter route over the cat and Fiddle. I managed to catch up with her near Bollington and we rode the last 7 miles together and taking the slightly longer route via High Lane from Hazel Grove.
I thoroughly enjoyed the ride despite the cold biting wind and Ali's flapjack went down well about halfway round.
Ali has a target for 540 bike miles and 80 run miles for November in her build up to Ironman Melbourne. Mine will be more but I have my sights on a Kona slot, a podium place and a personal best in that order. 9:19:21will be tough to beat especially as it was set nearly 8yrs ago but never say never.
Ive finally succumbed to using mapmyride/run so see today's ride in the link below. I did it 15minutes faster in reverse a few weeks ago.
todays bike route 2296 ft climbing